Andijan 0–0 Al Ahli Doha: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Andijan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahli Doha

10/1/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Andijan42%

×Draw32%

Al Ahli Doha26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Doha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.77

Andijan

1.06

Al Ahli Doha

0.77

Andijan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

1.20

0.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Andijan

0.33

Al Ahli Doha

1.20

allows per match

Andijan

0.33

Al Ahli Doha

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Al Ahli Doha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Al Ahli Doha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

74%

Andijan or Al Ahli Doha

68%

Draw or Al Ahli Doha

58%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

17%

Al Ahli Doha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

65%

Andijan 2+ goals

29%

Andijan 3+ goals

9%

Al Ahli Doha 1+ goals

54%

Al Ahli Doha 2+ goals

18%

Al Ahli Doha 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

62%

Al Ahli Doha (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Al Ahli Doha away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 0.33 + Al Ahli Doha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al Ahli Doha attack 1.20 + Andijan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Andijan scores more

42%

level

32%

Al Ahli Doha scores more

26%

Andijan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff