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Al Ahli Doha vs Andijan — AFC Cup 2018

Al Ahli Doha
Al Ahli Doha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Andijan
Andijan
12/24/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Ahli Doha57%
×Draw31%
Andijan12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Doha
1.21
Andijan
0.38

Al Ahli Doha creates 218% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Doha
1.75
Andijan
0.00

allows per match

Al Ahli Doha
0.75
Andijan
0.67

finishing

Al Ahli Doha+0.00on par
Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Doha ↓

Andijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–18%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Ahli Doha or draw
88%
Al Ahli Doha or Andijan
69%
Draw or Andijan
43%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Doha wins by 2+
27%
Andijan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Ahli Doha 1+ goals
70%
Al Ahli Doha 2+ goals
34%
Al Ahli Doha 3+ goals
12%
Andijan 1+ goals
32%
Andijan 2+ goals
6%
Andijan 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Doha (draw refunded)
83%
Andijan (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Doha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Doha attack 1.75 + Andijan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Andijan attack 0.00 + Al Ahli Doha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Ahli Doha scores more
57%
level
31%
Andijan scores more
12%

Al Ahli Doha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Ahli Doha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Ahli Doha 2–0 Andijan

Al Ahli Doha beat Andijan 2-0 in AFC Cup on December 24, 2025.

The match was played at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.