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Amorebieta vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Albacete
Albacete
2/25/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Amorebieta42%
×Draw28%
Albacete30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.26
Albacete
1.02

Amorebieta creates 24% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 149 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.19
Albacete
1.03

allows per match

Amorebieta
1.02
Albacete
1.33

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Albacete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
70%
Amorebieta or Albacete
72%
Draw or Albacete
58%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
19%
Albacete wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
72%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
36%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
13%
Albacete 1+ goals
64%
Albacete 2+ goals
27%
Albacete 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
58%
Albacete (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.19 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Albacete attack 1.03 + Amorebieta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Amorebieta scores more
42%
level
28%
Albacete scores more
30%

Amorebieta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Amorebieta 1–1 Albacete

Amorebieta and Albacete drew 1-1 in Segunda División on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 in Lezama.