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Albacete vs Amorebieta — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
8/20/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Albacete51%
×Draw26%
Amorebieta23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.50
Amorebieta
0.92

Albacete creates 63% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 42 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.27
Amorebieta
0.74

allows per match

Albacete
1.09
Amorebieta
1.74

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
77%
Albacete or Amorebieta
74%
Draw or Amorebieta
49%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
26%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
78%
Albacete 2+ goals
44%
Albacete 3+ goals
19%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
60%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
23%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
69%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 149 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.27 + Amorebieta defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Albacete scores more
51%
level
26%
Amorebieta scores more
23%

Albacete at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete vs Amorebieta

Albacete and Amorebieta drew 2-2 in Segunda División on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.