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Amora vs Alverca — Liga 3 2021

Amora
Amora
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Alverca
Alverca
1/27/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 18Estádio da Medideira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Amora38%
×Draw26%
Alverca36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amora
1.34
Alverca
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

creates per match

Amora
1.45
Alverca
1.38

allows per match

Amora
1.25
Alverca
1.24

finishing

Amora+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Amora or draw
64%
Amora or Alverca
74%
Draw or Alverca
62%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+
17%
Alverca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals
74%
Amora 2+ goals
39%
Amora 3+ goals
15%
Alverca 1+ goals
73%
Alverca 2+ goals
38%
Alverca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)
51%
Alverca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 1.45 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Alverca attack 1.38 + Amora defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Amora scores more
38%
level
26%
Alverca scores more
36%

Amora at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Amora 1–3 Alverca

Alverca beat Amora 3-1 in Liga 3 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio da Medideira in Amora.