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Alverca vs Amora — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Amora
Amora
12/17/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 12Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alverca49%
×Draw27%
Amora24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.40
Amora
0.88

Alverca creates 59% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
Amora
1.05

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
Amora
1.30

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Amora+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Amora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
76%
Alverca or Amora
73%
Draw or Amora
51%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
24%
Amora wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
75%
Alverca 2+ goals
41%
Alverca 3+ goals
17%
Amora 1+ goals
59%
Amora 2+ goals
22%
Amora 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
67%
Amora (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Amora away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Amora defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Amora attack 1.05 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alverca scores more
49%
level
27%
Amora scores more
24%

Alverca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alverca vs Amora

Alverca and Amora drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.