Amora 3–4 Academica: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Amora

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Academica

Caleb 61' (pen)

Paulo Marcelo 57'

Nuno Pereira 45+1'

Diogo Ribeiro 76'

Kevin Ibouka 52'

Hugo Seco 35'

Rodrigo Guedes 17'

1/7/2023

Liga 3 · Round 13Estádio da Medideira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Amora36%

×Draw26%

Academica39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmoraExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

Amora

1.33

Academica

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

1.45

creates per match

1.52

1.25

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Amora

1.45

Academica

1.52

allows per match

Amora

1.25

Academica

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amora+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Amora or draw

61%

Amora or Academica

74%

Draw or Academica

64%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+

16%

Academica wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals

74%

Amora 2+ goals

38%

Amora 3+ goals

15%

Academica 1+ goals

75%

Academica 2+ goals

40%

Academica 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)

48%

Academica (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

Academica away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 1.45 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Academica attack 1.52 + Amora defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Amora scores more

36%

level

26%

Academica scores more

39%

Academica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

26'

35'

45+1'

46'

David Teles← David Caiado

52'

57'

57'

61'

61'

Diogo Ribeiro← J. Perea

61'

CalebPenalty

67'

D. Teles

72'

Califo Baldé← Joca Monteiro

76'

Diogo Ribeiro

78'

C. Balde

81'

Jaílson Gomes← Nuno Pereira

81'

Zé Mário← Paulo Marcelo

86'

Jefferson

86'

Tiago Rodrigues← David Dinamite

86'

D. Rodríguez← Diogo Martins

89'

João Silva← Marco Grilo

89'

Francisco Lopes← Hugo Seco

90+2'

R. Guedes

90+2'

R. Guedes

90+2'

Jailson

90+5'

Amora

Academica

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Pereira

▼

Martins

⚽

▼

Marcelo

▼

Monteiro

Manager: João Pereira

72'▲Califo Baldé←▼Joca Monteiro

81'▲Jaílson Gomes←▼Nuno Pereira

81'▲Zé Mário←▼Paulo Marcelo

86'▲Tiago Rodrigues←▼David Dinamite

86'▲D. Rodríguez←▼Diogo Martins

Amora substitutes

BaldéGomesMárioRodriguesRodríguez

Manager: Zé Nando

46'▲David Teles←▼David Caiado

61'▲Diogo Ribeiro←▼J. Perea

89'▲João Silva←▼Marco Grilo

89'▲Francisco Lopes←▼Hugo Seco

Academica substitutes

TelesRibeiroSilvaLopes

Liga 3: Amora 3–4 Academica

Academica beat Amora 4-3 in Liga 3 on January 7, 2023.

Goals: Rodrigo Guedes (17'), Hugo Seco (35'), Nuno Pereira (45+1'), Kevin Ibouka (52'), Paulo Marcelo (57'), Caleb (61' pen), Diogo Ribeiro (76').

The match was played at Estádio da Medideira in Amora.

Amora vs Academica — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Amora 3–4 Academica