Academica 1–1 Amora: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Academica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Amora

Pedro Marques 82' (OG)

Miguel Montenegro 80'

8/20/2023

Liga 3 · Round 3Estádio Municipal Sérgio Conceição

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Academica42%

×Draw28%

Amora30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchAmora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.05

Academica

1.31

Amora

1.05

Academica creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

1.33

creates per match

1.05

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Academica

1.33

Amora

1.05

allows per match

Academica

1.05

Amora

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Amora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Amora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Academica or draw

70%

Academica or Amora

72%

Draw or Amora

58%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

19%

Amora wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

73%

Academica 2+ goals

38%

Academica 3+ goals

14%

Amora 1+ goals

65%

Amora 2+ goals

28%

Amora 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

59%

Amora (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Amora away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Amora defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Amora attack 1.05 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Academica scores more

42%

level

28%

Amora scores more

30%

Academica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

F. Maio

46'

T. Hirosawa← Hugo Seco

54'

J. Sousa

56'

F. Maio

56'

F. Maio

59'

Vasco Sousa← Bruno Figueiredo

63'

C. Santana

66'

M. Júnior← João Oliveira

66'

C. Okwara← Diogo Ferreira

71'

D. Amaro

71'

Lucas← Vasco Gomes

71'

Fausto Lourenço← João Silva

71'

David Teles← João Victor

77'

Toni← José Gata

77'

Jaílson Gomes← Eba Viegas

80'

Miguel Montenegro

82'

Pedro MarquesOwn goal

89'

M. Junior

89'

A. Tavares

89'

Tiago Veiga← Francisco Ferreira

90'

C. Okwara

90+5'

D. Teles

Academica

Amora

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Manager: Tiago Ribeiro

46'▲T. Hirosawa←▼Hugo Seco

71'▲Lucas←▼Vasco Gomes

71'▲Fausto Lourenço←▼João Silva

71'▲David Teles←▼João Victor

89'▲Tiago Veiga←▼Francisco Ferreira

Academica substitutes

HirosawaLucasLourençoTelesVeiga

Manager: Pedro Duarte

59'▲Vasco Sousa←▼Bruno Figueiredo

66'▲M. Júnior←▼João Oliveira

66'▲C. Okwara←▼Diogo Ferreira

77'▲Toni←▼José Gata

77'▲Jaílson Gomes←▼Eba Viegas

Amora substitutes

SousaJúniorOkwaraToniGomes