Amkar 0–1 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats | Cup

Amkar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zenit Izhevsk

8/31/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Amkar48%

×Draw24%

Zenit Izhevsk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmkarExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.17

Amkar

1.65

Zenit Izhevsk

1.17

Amkar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.29

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Amkar

1.29

Zenit Izhevsk

1.33

allows per match

Amkar

1.00

Zenit Izhevsk

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Amkar or draw

73%

Amkar or Zenit Izhevsk

76%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

52%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+

26%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals

81%

Amkar 2+ goals

49%

Amkar 3+ goals

23%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

69%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

33%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)

64%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.29 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.33 + Amkar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Amkar scores more

48%

level

24%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

27%

Amkar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff