Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Amkar vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Amkar
Amkar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
4/24/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Amkar60%
×Draw23%
Zenit Izhevsk17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.75
Zenit Izhevsk
0.81

Amkar creates 116% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 41 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.83
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Amkar
0.68
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
83%
Amkar or Zenit Izhevsk
77%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
40%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
34%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
83%
Amkar 2+ goals
52%
Amkar 3+ goals
25%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
56%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
19%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
78%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Amkar scores more
60%
level
23%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
17%

Amkar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkar vs Zenit Izhevsk

Amkar beat Zenit Izhevsk 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.