Amkar 1–0 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats | Cup

Amkar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chelyabinsk

I. Matyushenko 22'

9/14/2023

Cup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amkar41%

×Draw25%

Chelyabinsk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmkarExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.30

Amkar

1.45

Chelyabinsk

1.30

Amkar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Amkar

1.29

Chelyabinsk

1.60

allows per match

Amkar

1.00

Chelyabinsk

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Amkar or draw

66%

Amkar or Chelyabinsk

75%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

59%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+

19%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals

77%

Amkar 2+ goals

42%

Amkar 3+ goals

18%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

73%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

37%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)

55%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.29 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chelyabinsk attack 1.60 + Amkar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Amkar scores more

41%

level

25%

Chelyabinsk scores more

34%

Amkar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

I. Matyushenko

31'

V. Ulyanovskiy← N. Zyryanov

46'

L. Gerchikov← A. Nosov

46'

D. Velikorodny← N. Pershin

57'

A. Gaziev← M. Mayrovich

59'

V. Pjanchenko← D. Papikyan

65'

A. Podbeltsev← I. Matyushenko

69'

D. Kozlov← K. Girnyk

79'

K. Burykin← A. Mutaliev

Amkar

Chelyabinsk

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Matyushen

Manager: I. Cherenchikov

59'▲V. Pjanchenko←▼D. Papikyan

65'▲A. Podbeltsev←▼I. Matyushenko

79'▲K. Burykin←▼A. Mutaliev

Amkar substitutes

PjanchenkoPodbeltsevBurykin

Manager: V. Panov

31'▲V. Ulyanovskiy←▼N. Zyryanov

46'▲L. Gerchikov←▼A. Nosov

46'▲D. Velikorodny←▼N. Pershin

57'▲A. Gaziev←▼M. Mayrovich

69'▲D. Kozlov←▼K. Girnyk

Chelyabinsk substitutes

UlyanovskiyGerchikovVelikorodnyGazievKozlov