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Amkar vs Chelyabinsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Amkar
Amkar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
5/7/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Amkar42%
×Draw27%
Chelyabinsk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.14

Amkar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 42 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.83
Chelyabinsk
1.60

allows per match

Amkar
0.68
Chelyabinsk
0.88

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
68%
Amkar or Chelyabinsk
73%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
58%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
19%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
74%
Amkar 2+ goals
39%
Amkar 3+ goals
15%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
68%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
32%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
57%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chelyabinsk attack 1.60 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Amkar scores more
42%
level
27%
Chelyabinsk scores more
32%

Amkar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Amkar 1–0 Chelyabinsk

Amkar beat Chelyabinsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.