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America-RN vs Fortaleza EC — Serie C 2018

America-RN
America-RN
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
Anselmo 80' (pen)
Edimar 45'
Daniel Sobralense 34'
6/6/2016Serie CSerie C · Round 3Arena das Dunas (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

America-RN19%
×Draw31%
Fortaleza EC50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America-RN
0.62
Fortaleza EC
1.21

Fortaleza EC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

America-RN
0.91
Fortaleza EC
1.33

allows per match

America-RN
1.09
Fortaleza EC
0.33

finishing

America-RN+0.00on par
Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America-RN ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

America-RN or draw
50%
America-RN or Fortaleza EC
69%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
81%

Winning margin

America-RN wins by 2+
5%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

America-RN 1+ goals
46%
America-RN 2+ goals
13%
America-RN 3+ goals
3%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
70%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
34%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

America-RN (draw refunded)
27%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America-RN at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America-RN attack 0.91 + Fortaleza EC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.62

Fortaleza EC attack 1.33 + America-RN defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

America-RN scores more
19%
level
31%
Fortaleza EC scores more
50%

Fortaleza EC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Daniel Sobralense
45'
Edimar
80'
AnselmoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: America-RN 0–3 Fortaleza EC

Fortaleza EC beat America-RN 3-0 in Serie C on June 6, 2016.

Goals: Daniel Sobralense (34'), Edimar (45'), Anselmo (80' pen).

The match was played at Arena das Dunas (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte).