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Fortaleza EC vs America-RN — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
America-RN
America-RN
2/3/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fortaleza EC63%
×Draw22%
America-RN15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza EC
1.91
America-RN
0.81

Fortaleza EC creates 136% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fortaleza EC
1.95
America-RN
0.93

allows per match

Fortaleza EC
0.70
America-RN
1.86

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par
America-RN+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

America-RN →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw
85%
Fortaleza EC or America-RN
78%
Draw or America-RN
37%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
38%
America-RN wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
85%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
57%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
30%
America-RN 1+ goals
56%
America-RN 2+ goals
19%
America-RN 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
81%
America-RN (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

America-RN away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.95 + America-RN defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.91

America-RN attack 0.93 + Fortaleza EC defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more
63%
level
22%
America-RN scores more
15%

Fortaleza EC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Fortaleza EC 2–1 America-RN

Fortaleza EC beat America-RN 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.