America Mineiro 0–3 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Novorizontino

Tavinho 90'

Sander 74'

Diego Galo 71'

4/12/2026

Serie B · Round 4Arena Independência

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

America Mineiro38%

×Draw27%

Novorizontino35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.24

America Mineiro

1.30

Novorizontino

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

1.17

1.31

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.43

Novorizontino

1.17

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.31

Novorizontino

1.18

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.32scores less

Novorizontino-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

65%

America Mineiro or Novorizontino

73%

Draw or Novorizontino

62%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

17%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

73%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

37%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

14%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

71%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

35%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

52%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.18 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.43 + Novorizontino defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Novorizontino attack 1.17 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

America Mineiro scores more

38%

level

27%

Novorizontino scores more

35%

America Mineiro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Tavinho

Novorizontino · F

8.5

Match Events

27'

Nathan Pelae← Emerson Santos

52'

Dalbert

53'

Dantas

62'

Patrick← Dantas

62'

Tavinho← Vinicius Paiva

65'

Juninho← Romulo

69'

M. Segovia← Val Soares

69'

Yago Souza← Willian Bigode

70'

71'

74'

76'

77'

Thauan← Everton Brito

77'

Eduardo Person← Ale

87'

Leo Naldi← Diego Galo

87'

Carlao← Robson

90'

Tavinho↳ Juninho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaNovorizontino

Overview

54%Possession46%

6Total Shots15

0.24Expected Goals (xG)1.93

4Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots15

3On Target8

1Off Target5

2Blocked2

4Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

376Total Passes326

313Accurate Passes253

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

0.67Goals Prevented0.67

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

6Offsides4

Serie B: America Mineiro 0–3 Novorizontino

Novorizontino beat America Mineiro 3-0 in Serie B on April 12, 2026.

Goals: Diego Galo (71'), Sander (74'), Tavinho (90').

America Mineiro controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Arena Independência in Belo Horizonte.

America Mineiro vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: America Mineiro 0–3 Novorizontino