America Mineiro 2–2 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Novorizontino

Miguelito 87'

Willian Bigode 45'

Dantas 90'

Cesar Martins 29'

11/3/2025

Serie B · Round 35Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

America Mineiro38%

×Draw27%

Novorizontino35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.24

America Mineiro

1.30

Novorizontino

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

1.17

1.31

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.43

Novorizontino

1.17

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.31

Novorizontino

1.18

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.32scores less

Novorizontino-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

65%

America Mineiro or Novorizontino

73%

Draw or Novorizontino

62%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

17%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

73%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

37%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

14%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

71%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

35%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

52%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.18 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.43 + Novorizontino defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Novorizontino attack 1.17 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

America Mineiro scores more

38%

level

27%

Novorizontino scores more

35%

America Mineiro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Miguelito

America Mineiro · F

8.7

Match Events

29'

Cesar Martins↳ Romulo

35'

Waguininho

45'

Willian Bigode↳ Miguelito

46'

Thauan← C. Ortiz

58'

Emerson Santos

64'

Jhosefer← Miqueias

67'

Willian Farias← Romulo

67'

Lucca← Robson

77'

Aloisio← Felipe Amaral

77'

Rafa Silva← Willian Bigode

82'

Rafa Barcelos←

83'

Matheus Frizzo← Tavinho

83'

Bruno Jose← Waguininho

83'

O. Ruiz← Fabio Matheus

87'

Miguelito↳ Rafa Silva

90+2'

Jhosefer

90+1'

Dantas

90'

Dantas↳ Matheus Frizzo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaNovorizontino

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots17

1.28Expected Goals (xG)1.71

5Corners10

6Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots17

2On Target6

10Off Target6

3Blocked5

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box9

Passing

51%Possession49%

402Total Passes367

327Accurate Passes303

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Novorizontino

America Mineiro and Novorizontino drew 2-2 in Serie B on November 3, 2025.

Goals: Cesar Martins (29'), Willian Bigode (45'), Miguelito (87'), Dantas (90').

America Mineiro controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte.

America Mineiro vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Novorizontino