America Mineiro 0–0 Amazonas: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Amazonas

7/20/2024

Serie B · Round 16Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

America Mineiro52%

×Draw25%

Amazonas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

America Mineiro

1.59

Amazonas

0.98

America Mineiro creates 62% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

1.48

creates per match

0.72

1.25

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.48

Amazonas

0.72

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.25

Amazonas

1.71

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.28scores less

Amazonas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

77%

America Mineiro or Amazonas

75%

Draw or Amazonas

48%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

27%

Amazonas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

80%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

47%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

21%

Amazonas 1+ goals

62%

Amazonas 2+ goals

26%

Amazonas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

69%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Amazonas away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.48 + Amazonas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Amazonas attack 0.72 + America Mineiro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

America Mineiro scores more

52%

level

25%

Amazonas scores more

23%

America Mineiro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Miranda

Amazonas · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

Adyson

27'

Erick

61'

Renato Marques← Brenner

69'

D. Torres← Rafael Tavares

69'

Jô← Sassá

72'

Gustavinho← Moisés

73'

Felipe Azevedo← Fabinho

78'

Gustavinho

78'

Cocote← Matheus Serafim

79'

J. Uchuari← Ênio

82'

Mateus Henrique

84'

Daniel Borges← Mateus Henrique

85'

Thauan Willians← Adyson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaAmazonas

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots12

7Corners7

10Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target2

5Off Target5

7Blocked5

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

472Total Passes296

392Accurate Passes234

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1