Amazonas 1–0 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Amazonas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America Mineiro

Matheus Serafim 69'

11/5/2024

Serie B · Round 35Arena da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Amazonas43%

×Draw28%

America Mineiro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Amazonas

1.29

America Mineiro

1.02

Amazonas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

1.26

creates per match

0.92

1.12

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Amazonas

1.26

America Mineiro

0.92

allows per match

Amazonas

1.12

America Mineiro

1.31

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Amazonas-0.12scores less

America Mineiro-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

71%

Amazonas or America Mineiro

72%

Draw or America Mineiro

57%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

19%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

72%

Amazonas 2+ goals

37%

Amazonas 3+ goals

14%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

64%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

27%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

59%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 7 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.26 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

America Mineiro attack 0.92 + Amazonas defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Amazonas scores more

43%

level

28%

America Mineiro scores more

29%

Amazonas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Matheus Serafim

Amazonas · F

7.7

Match Events

53'

Alê

60'

Cauan Barros← Pará

60'

Róbson← William Barbio

67'

Wallisson← Brenner

67'

Adyson← Alê

67'

Matheus Davó← F. Elizari

69'

Matheus Serafim

71'

Matheus SerafimGoal confirmed

77'

Erick

81'

Bruno Lopes← Sassá

82'

J. Jiménez← D. Torres

82'

Renato Marques← Rodriguinho

86'

Wallisson Luiz

86'

Gustavo Ermel← Matheus Serafim

87'

Mateus Henrique

89'

Robson

89'

Paulinho← Nicolas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmazonasAmerica

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots13

4Corners6

6Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots13

2On Target5

8Off Target6

2Blocked2

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

331Total Passes356

278Accurate Passes313

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls6

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Serie B: Amazonas 1–0 America Mineiro

Amazonas beat America Mineiro 1-0 in Serie B on November 5, 2024.

Goals: Matheus Serafim (69').

America Mineiro controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena da Amazônia in Manaus, Amazonas.

Amazonas vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Amazonas 1–0 America Mineiro