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America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2024

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
J. Romero 71'
Y. Guzman 31' (pen), 13'
1/17/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 1Olimpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

America de Cali60%
×Draw24%
Internacional de Bogota16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.68
Internacional de Bogota
0.72

America de Cali creates 133% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.62
Internacional de Bogota
0.79

allows per match

America de Cali
0.64
Internacional de Bogota
1.74

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
84%
America de Cali or Internacional de Bogota
76%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
40%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
34%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
81%
America de Cali 2+ goals
50%
America de Cali 3+ goals
24%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
51%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
16%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
79%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.62 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.79 + America de Cali defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

America de Cali scores more
60%
level
24%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
16%

America de Cali at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. CastilloAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
Nicolás Hernández
13'
Y. Guzman↳ R. Carrascal
31'
Y. GuzmanPenalty
32'
Samir Mayo
45'
Carlos Vivas
46'
K. Suarez← Y. A. Gomez Mosquera
46'
D. Quinones← J. Caballero
46'
F. Bone← S. Mayo
52'
Josen Escobar
60'
J. Romero← D. Borrero
60'
Y. Garces← K. Angulo
67'
B. Caicedo← R. Manjarres
71'
J. Romero↳ J. Palacios
73'
D. Machis← J. Palacios
75'
J. Valencia← F. Sanguinetti
79'
Darwin Machís
85'
A. Mosquera← N. Hernandez
85'
J. Cavadia← J. Escobar
90+3'
Yojan Garcés

Possession

57%America

Shots

11America

Pass accuracy

51%America

Statistics

AmericaInternacional
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots9
1Corners3
19Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots9
5On Target3
0Off Target3
6Blocked3
3Inside Box3
8Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
516Total Passes389
464Accurate Passes335
90%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota

America de Cali beat Internacional de Bogota 3-0 in Primera A on January 17, 2026.

Goals: Y. Guzman (13', 31' pen), J. Romero (71').

America de Cali controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Olimpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.