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America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2024

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
Y. Garces 90'
J. Pestana 37'
A. Ramos 32'
E. Banguero 82'
J. Valencia 12'
10/12/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

America de Cali60%
×Draw24%
Internacional de Bogota16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.68
Internacional de Bogota
0.72

America de Cali creates 133% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.62
Internacional de Bogota
0.79

allows per match

America de Cali
0.64
Internacional de Bogota
1.74

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
84%
America de Cali or Internacional de Bogota
76%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
40%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
34%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
81%
America de Cali 2+ goals
50%
America de Cali 3+ goals
24%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
51%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
16%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
79%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.62 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.79 + America de Cali defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

America de Cali scores more
60%
level
24%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
16%

America de Cali at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
R. CarrascalAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · M
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Kevin Parra
12'
J. Valencia↳ S. Mayo
14'
Juan ValenciaGoal confirmed
32'
A. Ramos
34'
Dannovi Quiñonez
37'
J. Pestana↳ A. Roa
51'
Joider MicoltaCard upgrade
53'
Joider Micolta
59'
Josen Escobar
59'
J. Colorado← J. Masllorens
59'
E. Banguero← S. Mayo
65'
D. Borrero← A. Roa
73'
J. Murillo← J. Lucumi
73'
Y. Garces← A. Ramos
73'
F. Gonzalez← K. Parra Atehortua
76'
Yulián Gómez
81'
J. Castilla← D. Quinones
81'
F. Chaverra← J. Valencia
82'
E. Banguero↳ F. Gonzalez
84'
Y. Candelo← M. Castillo
84'
T. Palacios← C. Barrios
86'
Fabian Chaverra
90+5'
Dylan Borrero
90'
Y. Garces

Possession

69%America

Shots

25America

Pass accuracy

53%America

Statistics

AmericaInternacional
Overview
69%Possession31%
25Total Shots6
9Corners0
12Fouls9
Shots
25Total Shots6
11On Target4
9Off Target2
5Blocked0
18Inside Box5
7Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
545Total Passes239
484Accurate Passes192
89%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards2
1Offsides1

Primera A: America de Cali 3–2 Internacional de Bogota

America de Cali beat Internacional de Bogota 3-2 in Primera A on October 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Valencia (12'), A. Ramos (32'), J. Pestana (37'), E. Banguero (82'), Y. Garces (90').

America de Cali controlled possession (69%) and registered 25 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.