America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota — Copa Colombia 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
America de Cali55%
Internacional de Bogota18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
America de Cali creates 109% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
America de Cali ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches
Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
America de Cali attack 1.43 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44
Internacional de Bogota attack 0.67 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
America de Cali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Atletico NacionalAmerica de Cali
Deportivo Cali
Junior
Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Petrolera
Cucuta
Independiente Medellin
Once Caldas
Millonarios
Bucaramanga
Rionegro Aguilas
Deportivo Pasto
Patriotas
EnvigadoLa Equidad
Huila
Jaguares
Union MagdalenaMillonariosDeportivo CaliDeportes TolimaAmerica de CaliAtletico NacionalDeportivo PastoJuniorUnion MagdalenaIndependiente MedellinOnce CaldasCucutaPatriotasEnvigadoAlianza PetroleraJaguaresLa EquidadBucaramangaHuilaRionegro AguilasSanta FeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
America de Cali host Internacional de Bogota on Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 00:00. The match is part of the Copa Colombia 2019/2020 season.
America de Cali 2 – 0 Internacional de Bogota
America de Cali beat Internacional de Bogota 2-0 in Copa Colombia on September 26, 2024.
Goals: É. Balanta (18'), J. Quiñónes (26').
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.