America de Cali 2–1 Deportivo Pereira

America de Cali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Pereira

A. Ramos 90+3'

A. Sarmiento 15'

C. Ramírez 67'

4/25/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 15Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

America de Cali52%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pereira20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.71

America de Cali

1.35

Deportivo Pereira

0.71

America de Cali creates 90% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

0.61

0.81

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Deportivo Pereira

0.61

allows per match

America de Cali

0.81

Deportivo Pereira

1.34

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

America de Cali+0.03on par

Deportivo Pereira-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

80%

America de Cali or Deportivo Pereira

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

48%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

74%

America de Cali 2+ goals

39%

America de Cali 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

51%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

16%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.61 + America de Cali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

America de Cali scores more

52%

level

28%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

20%

America de Cali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Ramos

America de Cali · F

8.0

Match Events

15'

A. Sarmiento↳ A. Ramos

56'

Arley Rodríguez← K. Aladesanmi

57'

J. Bocanegra← L. Angulo

57'

E. Moreno← J. Zuluaga

57'

C. Ramírez← Y. Súarez

62'

M. Medina

67'

C. Ramírez↳ J. Bocanegra

71'

K. Andrade

71'

D. Hernández← J. Quintero

72'

J. Fory

73'

L. Sánchez← C. Barrios

83'

D. Mosquera← A. Sarmiento

90+1'

90+8'

90+9'

90+10'

90+7'

K. Angulo← Iago Falqué

90+3'

A. Ramos↳ K. Andrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaDeportivo

Overview

52%Possession48%

24Total Shots9

5Corners0

14Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots9

6On Target3

11Off Target6

7Blocked0

13Inside Box4

11Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

415Total Passes391

338Accurate Passes317

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1

Primera A: America de Cali 2–1 Deportivo Pereira

America de Cali beat Deportivo Pereira 2-1 in Primera A on April 25, 2023.

Goals: A. Sarmiento (15'), C. Ramírez (67'), A. Ramos (90+3').

America de Cali controlled possession (52%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.

America de Cali vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: America de Cali 2–1 Deportivo Pereira