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America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
Preview
01:15
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
9/13/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 10
Big match
52%
America de Cali
model favours
52%27%21%

America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 172+ matches

America de Cali52%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pasto21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.41
Deportivo Pasto
0.78

America de Cali creates 81% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 172 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Deportivo Pasto
0.79

allows per match

America de Cali
0.76
Deportivo Pasto
1.32

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Pasto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
79%
America de Cali or Deportivo Pasto
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto
48%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
76%
America de Cali 2+ goals
41%
America de Cali 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
71%
Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 189 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + America de Cali defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

America de Cali scores more
52%
level
27%
Deportivo Pasto scores more
21%

America de Cali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • America de Cali outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
America de Cali
Defensively solid
Deportivo Pasto
Balanced
52%Possession46%
80%Pass accuracy78%
13.9ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.19xG1.30
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
America de CaliDeportivo Pasto

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
America de Cali
3
Draws
3
Deportivo Pasto
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
0–22–01–11–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
LWWDD
Pasto
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: America de Cali host Deportivo Pasto

September 13, 2026: America de Cali take on Deportivo Pasto in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.