America de Cali 1–1 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pasto

E. Velasco 75'

D. Riascos 87'

7/30/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

America de Cali41%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

America de Cali

1.23

Deportivo Pasto

1.02

America de Cali creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.37

creates per match

1.24

0.81

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

America de Cali

0.81

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali+0.03on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

69%

America de Cali or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

59%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

71%

America de Cali 2+ goals

35%

America de Cali 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + America de Cali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

America de Cali scores more

41%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

31%

America de Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Moreno

Deportivo Pasto · F

8.3

Match Events

37'

Didier Jair Pino Cordoba

46'

E. López← D. López

54'

F. Suárez← D. Quintero

54'

C. Barrios← L. Mosquera

55'

E. Cardona← A. Ramos

57'

Camilo Portilla

72'

Y. Rosales← J. Figueroa

72'

D. Riascos← G. Britos

74'

Christian Mafla

75'

E. Velasco

80'

J. Campaña← D. Pino

83'

D. Contreras← A. Sarmiento

84'

G. Charrupí← C. Ayala

87'

M. Mina← J. Quiñónes

87'

D. Riascos↳ D. Moreno

90+5'

Edwin Cardona

90+2'

Cristian Barrios

90+5'

Juan Camilo Roa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaDeportivo

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots9

6Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots9

3On Target3

9Off Target3

7Blocked3

11Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

525Total Passes246

438Accurate Passes165

83%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2