America de Cali 0–3 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

H. Rojas 85'

M. Vázquez 60'

A. Estupiñán 45+2'

6/1/2019

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 5Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

America de Cali41%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pasto31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.03

America de Cali

1.23

Deportivo Pasto

1.03

America de Cali creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.37

creates per match

1.24

0.83

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

69%

America de Cali or Deportivo Pasto

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

59%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

71%

America de Cali 2+ goals

35%

America de Cali 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

America de Cali scores more

41%

level

28%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

31%

America de Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Neto Volpi

Deportivo Pasto · G

8.3

Match Events

17'

18'

22'

36'

38'

H. Rojas← M. Quiñónes

40'

42'

42'

45'

45+2'

A. Estupiñán↳ M. Vázquez

49'

J. Medina← Y. Cabrera

60'

M. Vázquez↳ C. Hidalgo

61'

Daniel Quiñones

63'

Cristian Florez

64'

Neto

70'

R. Vanegas← A. Estupiñán

72'

E. Castañeda← J. Ortiz

80'

J. Nieva← F. Aristeguieta

85'

H. Rojas↳ J. Cardona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaDeportivo

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots8

3Corners1

16Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots8

6On Target6

11Off Target2

1Blocked0

9Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

346Total Passes275

271Accurate Passes212

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls14

5Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards–

4Offsides3

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Pasto beat America de Cali 3-0 in Primera A on June 1, 2019.

Goals: A. Estupiñán (45+2'), M. Vázquez (60'), H. Rojas (85').

America de Cali controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.

America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto