America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali

America de Cali

Preview

01:20

Deportivo Cali

11/4/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 18

Big match

53%

America de Cali

model favours

53%26%20%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

America de Cali53%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cali20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.81

America de Cali

1.49

Deportivo Cali

0.81

America de Cali creates 84% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 39 away

1.65

creates per match

0.92

0.70

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

America de Cali

1.65

Deportivo Cali

0.92

allows per match

America de Cali

0.70

Deportivo Cali

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

80%

America de Cali or Deportivo Cali

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

47%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

27%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

77%

America de Cali 2+ goals

44%

America de Cali 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

72%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.65 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Deportivo Cali attack 0.92 + America de Cali defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

America de Cali scores more

53%

level

26%

Deportivo Cali scores more

20%

America de Cali at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches
73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Style contrast — America de Cali play Attack-heavy, Deportivo Cali Defensively solid
Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

America de Cali

Attack-heavy

Deportivo Cali

Defensively solid

54%Possession53%

81%Pass accuracy80%

17.0Shots12.9

1.59xGBiggest gap1.02

America de CaliDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

America de Cali

2

Draws

1

Deportivo Cali

Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 20%

0–12–00–02–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Cali

LWWDD

Cali

WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff