America de Cali 2–2 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Cali

A. Ramos 89', 43'

T. Gutiérrez 60'

H. Menosse 29'

9/8/2021

Copa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

America de Cali46%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Cali26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.94

America de Cali

1.36

Deportivo Cali

0.94

America de Cali creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.43

creates per match

1.18

0.71

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

America de Cali

1.43

Deportivo Cali

1.18

allows per match

America de Cali

0.71

Deportivo Cali

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

74%

America de Cali or Deportivo Cali

72%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

54%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

22%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

74%

America de Cali 2+ goals

39%

America de Cali 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

61%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

24%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

64%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Cali attack 1.18 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Cali scores more

46%

level

28%

Deportivo Cali scores more

26%

America de Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

E. Batalla← G. Carvajal

22'

24'

24'

29'

36'

43'

46'

57'

A. Balanta← C. Robles

57'

A. Colorado← J. Valencia

60'

T. Gutiérrez

65'

G. Rodriguez

66'

G. Torres← L. Paz

67'

D. Andrade

70'

K. Velasco← G. Rodríguez

77'

A. Arroyo← T. Gutiérrez

77'

M. Ortega← J. Vásquez

89'

A. Ramos

90+4'

America

Deportivo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: J. Osorio

14'▲E. Batalla←▼G. Carvajal

46'▲C. Sierra←▼R. Ureña

66'▲G. Torres←▼L. Paz

America de Cali substitutes

BatallaSierraTorresMontesAndradeQuinteroOrtiz

Manager: R. Dudamel

57'▲A. Balanta←▼C. Robles

57'▲A. Colorado←▼J. Valencia

70'▲K. Velasco←▼G. Rodríguez

77'▲A. Arroyo←▼T. Gutiérrez

77'▲M. Ortega←▼J. Vásquez

Deportivo Cali substitutes

BalantaColoradoVelascoArroyoOrtegaTorresAcevedo

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali

America de Cali and Deportivo Cali drew 2-2 in Copa Colombia on September 8, 2021.

Goals: H. Menosse (29'), A. Ramos (43', 89'), T. Gutiérrez (60').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.

America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali