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America de Cali vs Depor FC — Copa Colombia 2026

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Depor FC
Depor FC
L. Sánchez 9'
3/22/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 3Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

America de Cali64%
×Draw24%
Depor FC13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.67
Depor FC
0.58

America de Cali creates 188% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.43
Depor FC
0.46

allows per match

America de Cali
0.71
Depor FC
1.92

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Depor FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
87%
America de Cali or Depor FC
76%
Draw or Depor FC
36%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
36%
Depor FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
81%
America de Cali 2+ goals
50%
America de Cali 3+ goals
23%
Depor FC 1+ goals
44%
Depor FC 2+ goals
12%
Depor FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
84%
Depor FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Depor FC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

Depor FC attack 0.46 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

America de Cali scores more
64%
level
24%
Depor FC scores more
13%

America de Cali at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Sánchez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Depor FC

America de Cali beat Depor FC 1-0 in Copa Colombia on March 22, 2019.

Goals: L. Sánchez (9').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali).