America de Cali 5–0 Depor FC: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Depor FC

C. Martínez Borja 63', 2'

F. Mercado 22'

Brayan Angulo Mosquera 18'

J. Angulo 11'

8/23/2016

Primera B · Round 24Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

America de Cali66%

×Draw20%

Depor FC14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDepor FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.78

America de Cali

2.00

Depor FC

0.78

America de Cali creates 156% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 121 away

2.33

creates per match

0.88

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

America de Cali

2.33

Depor FC

0.88

allows per match

America de Cali

0.67

Depor FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Depor FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

86%

America de Cali or Depor FC

80%

Draw or Depor FC

34%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

41%

Depor FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

86%

America de Cali 2+ goals

59%

America de Cali 3+ goals

32%

Depor FC 1+ goals

54%

Depor FC 2+ goals

18%

Depor FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

83%

Depor FC (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 2.33 + Depor FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Depor FC attack 0.88 + America de Cali defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

America de Cali scores more

66%

level

20%

Depor FC scores more

14%

America de Cali at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

C. Martínez Borja

8'

E. Castañeda← C. Pérez

11'

J. Angulo

18'

Brayan Angulo Mosquera

22'

F. Mercado

24'

R. Murillo← J. Arboleda

42'

J. Bonilla← L. Valencia

63'

C. Martínez Borja

65'

D. Valencia← S. Carabalí

67'

W. Arboleda← Brayan Angulo Mosquera

72'

G. Balanta← S. Lucumí

America

Depor

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

Manager: H. Torres

8'▲E. Castañeda←▼C. Pérez

67'▲W. Arboleda←▼Brayan Angulo Mosquera

72'▲G. Balanta←▼S. Lucumí

America de Cali substitutes

CastañedaArboledaBalanta

Manager: J. Larrahondo

24'▲R. Murillo←▼J. Arboleda

42'▲J. Bonilla←▼L. Valencia

65'▲D. Valencia←▼S. Carabalí

Depor FC substitutes

MurilloBonillaValencia

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Depor FC

America de Cali beat Depor FC 5-0 in Primera B on August 23, 2016.

Goals: C. Martínez Borja (2', 63'), J. Angulo (11'), Brayan Angulo Mosquera (18'), F. Mercado (22').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali).

America de Cali vs Depor FC — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Depor FC