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America de Cali vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
5/3/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

America de Cali55%
×Draw26%
Alianza Valledupar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.50
Alianza Valledupar
0.76

America de Cali creates 97% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 167 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Alianza Valledupar
0.75

allows per match

America de Cali
0.77
Alianza Valledupar
1.50

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
81%
America de Cali or Alianza Valledupar
74%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
45%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
28%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
78%
America de Cali 2+ goals
44%
America de Cali 3+ goals
19%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
53%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
18%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
74%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

America de Cali scores more
55%
level
26%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
19%

America de Cali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Alianza Valledupar

Alianza Valledupar beat America de Cali 1-0 in Primera A on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.