Alianza Valledupar 0–1 America de Cali

Alianza Valledupar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

D. Vergara 90+7'

9/23/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 166+ matches

Alianza Valledupar41%

×Draw28%

America de Cali31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Alianza Valledupar

1.29

America de Cali

1.08

Alianza Valledupar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 190 away

1.31

creates per match

1.04

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

America de Cali

1.04

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.13

America de Cali

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

69%

Alianza Valledupar or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

59%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

19%

America de Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

72%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

37%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

14%

America de Cali 1+ goals

66%

America de Cali 2+ goals

29%

America de Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

57%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 190 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

41%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

31%

Alianza Valledupar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Vergara

America de Cali · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

A. RenteriaGoal Disallowed - offside

27'

A. Zapata

59'

H. Rivera← J. Escobar

59'

Y. Garcés← A. Ramos

69'

J. Quiñónes← Pipe Gómez

74'

E. Torres← E. Batalla

75'

M. Gil← J. Muñoz

81'

M. Zuleta← A. Zapata

85'

I. Camargo← A. Rentería

86'

L. Mosquera← R. Colpa

90+8'

D. Vergara

90+7'

D. Vergara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAmerica

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots9

5Corners3

15Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target3

3Off Target5

5Blocked1

7Inside Box2

3Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

343Total Passes304

272Accurate Passes241

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3