Alianza Valledupar 1–0 America de Cali

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

C. Lucumi 72'

8/31/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Alianza Valledupar40%

×Draw28%

America de Cali32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Alianza Valledupar

1.25

America de Cali

1.08

Alianza Valledupar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 131 away

1.32

creates per match

0.99

1.18

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.32

America de Cali

0.99

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.18

America de Cali

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

68%

Alianza Valledupar or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

60%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

18%

America de Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

71%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

36%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

13%

America de Cali 1+ goals

66%

America de Cali 2+ goals

29%

America de Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

56%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.32 + America de Cali defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

America de Cali attack 0.99 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

40%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

32%

Alianza Valledupar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

C. Lucumi

Alianza Valledupar · F

7.6

Match Events

25'

Kalazan Suárez

35'

Jair Castillo

44'

Éder Balanta

46'

J. Escobar← E. Balanta

46'

S. Navarro← D. Borrero

52'

C. Barrios← R. Holgado

63'

Yerson Candelo

63'

Y. Garces← L. Ramos

66'

J. Munoz← R. Manjarres

70'

J. E. Perez Balcazar← J. Munoz

71'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← E. Torres

72'

C. Lucumi↳ S. A. Aponza Cantonil

76'

M. Castillo← Y. Candelo

83'

L. Perez← C. Lucumi

84'

F. Mosquera← W. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAmerica

Overview

54%Possession46%

6Total Shots14

0Corners8

17Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots14

4On Target2

2Off Target10

0Blocked2

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

400Total Passes335

312Accurate Passes253

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs America de Cali

Alianza Valledupar beat America de Cali 1-0 in Primera A on August 31, 2025.

Goals: C. Lucumi (72').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs America de Cali — Primera A 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs America de Cali