America de Cali 2–1 Alianza Atletico

America de Cali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alianza Atletico

4/16/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Olimpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

America de Cali51%

×Draw31%

Alianza Atletico18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.57

America de Cali

1.17

Alianza Atletico

0.57

America de Cali creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

0.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

America de Cali

1.00

Alianza Atletico

0.33

allows per match

America de Cali

0.80

Alianza Atletico

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

82%

America de Cali or Alianza Atletico

69%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

49%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

22%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

69%

America de Cali 2+ goals

33%

America de Cali 3+ goals

11%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

43%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

11%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

74%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.00 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alianza Atletico attack 0.33 + America de Cali defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

America de Cali scores more

51%

level

31%

Alianza Atletico scores more

18%

America de Cali at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff