Alianza Atletico 0–2 America de Cali

Alianza Atletico

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

5/7/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alianza Atletico35%

×Draw30%

America de Cali36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.08

Alianza Atletico

1.06

America de Cali

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

0.75

creates per match

0.91

1.25

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

0.75

America de Cali

0.91

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

1.25

America de Cali

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

64%

Alianza Atletico or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

65%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

14%

America de Cali wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

65%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

29%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

9%

America de Cali 1+ goals

66%

America de Cali 2+ goals

29%

America de Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

49%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 0.75 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

35%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

36%

America de Cali at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff