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Amazulu vs Orbit College — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orbit College
Orbit College
N. Ngiba 23' (OG)
8/9/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Princess Magogo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Amazulu47%
×Draw29%
Orbit College23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
1.25
Orbit College
0.79

Amazulu creates 58% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 17 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Orbit College
0.71

allows per match

Amazulu
0.88
Orbit College
1.41

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Orbit College →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
77%
Amazulu or Orbit College
71%
Draw or Orbit College
53%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
21%
Orbit College wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
71%
Amazulu 2+ goals
36%
Amazulu 3+ goals
13%
Orbit College 1+ goals
55%
Orbit College 2+ goals
19%
Orbit College 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
67%
Orbit College (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Amazulu defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Amazulu scores more
47%
level
29%
Orbit College scores more
23%

Amazulu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
A. BatsiOrbit CollegeOrbit College · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
N. NgibaOwn goal
31'
Realeboga Potsana
46'
G. Thibedi← T. Mohlamme
64'
T. Matsemela← R. Potsana
69'
B. Motshwari← B. Zungu
69'
A. Sithole← H. Ekstein
80'
M. Mbanjwa← T. Mashigo
84'
L. Modimoeng← L. Koapeng
84'
T. Moleleki← K. Setlhodi
90+2'
B. Thabede← S. Hlangabeza

Possession

54%Amazulu

Shots

11Amazulu

Pass accuracy

51%Amazulu

Statistics

AmazuluOrbit
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots9
7Corners1
13Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target2
4Off Target5
3Blocked2
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
548Total Passes472
485Accurate Passes402
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Amazulu vs Orbit College

Amazulu beat Orbit College 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 9, 2025.

Goals: N. Ngiba (23' o.g.).

Amazulu controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Princess Magogo Stadium in Durban.