Amazonas 2–0 Manaus FC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Amazonas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Manaus FC

Sassá 90', 37'

6/11/2023

Serie C · Round 8Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Amazonas52%

×Draw29%

Manaus FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchManaus FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.66

Amazonas

1.31

Manaus FC

0.66

Amazonas creates 98% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

1.10

creates per match

0.72

0.60

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Amazonas

1.10

Manaus FC

0.72

allows per match

Amazonas

0.60

Manaus FC

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazonas+0.00on par

Manaus FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Manaus FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

81%

Amazonas or Manaus FC

71%

Draw or Manaus FC

48%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

25%

Manaus FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

73%

Amazonas 2+ goals

38%

Amazonas 3+ goals

14%

Manaus FC 1+ goals

48%

Manaus FC 2+ goals

14%

Manaus FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

74%

Manaus FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Manaus FC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.10 + Manaus FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Manaus FC attack 0.72 + Amazonas defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Amazonas scores more

52%

level

29%

Manaus FC scores more

19%

Amazonas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Sassa

4'

Gabriel Lima

16'

Gabriel Tonini

37'

Yuri

37'

Sassá

41'

Lucas Mota

42'

Philippe Guimaraes

46'

DG← PH

46'

Vini Locatelli← Luan Silva

48'

DG

52'

Thiago Spice

56'

Gustavo Ermel← Foguinho

57'

João Lucas← Gabriel Lima

64'

Capa← Gustavinho

64'

Lucas Carvalho← Cardoso

70'

Xavier← Rafael Tavares

70'

Gabriel Correia← Gilson Alves

70'

Henan← Klenisson

72'

Jorge Jimenez

79'

Edson Mardden

79'

Caio Hila← Yuri Ferraz

84'

Douglas

90+7'

Lucas Carvalho

90'

Sassá

Amazonas

Manaus

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Rafael Lacerda

46'▲DG←▼PH

46'▲Vini Locatelli←▼Luan Silva

56'▲Gustavo Ermel←▼Foguinho

70'▲Xavier←▼Rafael Tavares

79'▲Caio Hila←▼Yuri Ferraz

Amazonas substitutes

DGLocatelliErmelXavierHilaVolpiBetinhoCharlesFernandinhoLaércioGustavoHernández

Manager: Higo Magalhães

57'▲João Lucas←▼Gabriel Lima

64'▲Capa←▼Gustavinho

64'▲Lucas Carvalho←▼Cardoso

70'▲Gabriel Correia←▼Gilson Alves

70'▲Henan←▼Klenisson

Manaus FC substitutes

LucasCapaCarvalhoCorreiaHenanGuilhermeCharlesToniniGustavoJeffersonVinícius