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Always Ready vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2026

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
H. Cuellar 15'
10/24/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 19Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Always Ready61%
×Draw21%
Jorge Wilstermann18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.04
Jorge Wilstermann
1.01

Always Ready creates 102% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 121 away

creates per match

Always Ready
2.58
Jorge Wilstermann
1.15

allows per match

Always Ready
0.87
Jorge Wilstermann
1.50

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
82%
Always Ready or Jorge Wilstermann
79%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
39%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
37%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
87%
Always Ready 2+ goals
60%
Always Ready 3+ goals
33%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
64%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
27%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
77%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.87 · 127 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.15 + Always Ready defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Always Ready scores more
61%
level
21%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
18%

Always Ready at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. BarojaAlways ReadyAlways Ready · G
8.2

Match Events

15'
H. Cuellar↳ M. Suárez
19'
Luis Francisco Rodriguez Zegada
46'
A. Guillermo← L. Vargas
46'
Jefferson da Silva← F. Rodríguez
51'
Josué Mamani
56'
C. Cañozales← C. Lucumí
58'
Héctor Cuellar
59'
P. Vaca← R. Terrazas
62'
Luis Caicedo
71'
J. Herrera← L. Caicedo
71'
B. Loroño← J. Martínez
82'
A. Nahuelpán← C. Machado
84'
Héctor Bobadilla
85'
Cristian Cañozales
90+1'
Zinedinne La Fuente

Possession

50%Always

Shots

10Always

Pass accuracy

49%Always

Statistics

AlwaysJorge
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots15
0Corners3
7Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots15
1On Target6
9Off Target5
0Blocked4
1Inside Box5
9Outside Box10
Passing
50%Possession50%
434Total Passes431
372Accurate Passes384
86%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Primera División: Always Ready 1–0 Jorge Wilstermann

Always Ready beat Jorge Wilstermann 1-0 in Primera División on October 24, 2024.

Goals: H. Cuellar (15').

Always Ready controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Alto in El Alto.