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Always Ready vs ABB — League #964 2026

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ABB
ABB
11/8/2025League #964League #964 · Copa Bolivia - 14Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Always Ready71%
×Draw15%
ABB14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.93
ABB
1.25

Always Ready creates 134% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Always Ready
3.00
ABB
1.00

allows per match

Always Ready
1.50
ABB
2.86

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

ABB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
86%
Always Ready or ABB
85%
Draw or ABB
29%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
51%
ABB wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
94%
Always Ready 2+ goals
78%
Always Ready 3+ goals
55%
ABB 1+ goals
71%
ABB 2+ goals
36%
ABB 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
84%
ABB (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

ABB away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 3.00 + ABB defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.93

ABB attack 1.00 + Always Ready defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Always Ready scores more
71%
level
15%
ABB scores more
14%

Always Ready at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #964: Always Ready 5–1 ABB

Always Ready beat ABB 5-1 in League #964 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.