Always Ready 5–1 ABB: Result & Stats

Always Ready

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

ABB

H. Cuellar 82'

E. Gonzalez 68'

M. Paniagua 53', 40'

R. Ferrufino 45'

R. E. Rocabado Concha 77'

6/21/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Always Ready72%

×Draw16%

ABB12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Always ReadyExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.99

Always Ready

2.67

ABB

0.99

Always Ready creates 170% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 21 away

2.58

creates per match

1.10

0.87

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Always Ready

2.58

ABB

1.10

allows per match

Always Ready

0.87

ABB

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw

88%

Always Ready or ABB

84%

Draw or ABB

28%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+

51%

ABB wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals

93%

Always Ready 2+ goals

74%

Always Ready 3+ goals

49%

ABB 1+ goals

63%

ABB 2+ goals

26%

ABB 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)

86%

ABB (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.87 · 127 matches

ABB away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + ABB defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.67

ABB attack 1.10 + Always Ready defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Always Ready scores more

72%

level

16%

ABB scores more

12%

Always Ready at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Paniagua

Always Ready · M

8.9

Match Events

5'

Emanuel Paniagua

12'

C. Jemio← F. Zamora

34'

Carlos Jemio

40'

M. Paniagua↳ A. Rambal

45'

R. Ferrufino↳ E. Taborga

46'

J. Velasco← E. Taborga

49'

Jhon Mena

53'

M. Paniagua↳ R. Ferrufino

55'

Moises PaniaguaGoal confirmed

56'

J. Uzeda← M. Paniagua

60'

M. Galindo← G. Rea Mendieta

60'

A. Cervantes← J. Rivas

61'

R. E. Rocabado Concha← B. Espinoza

63'

Alex Rambal

68'

E. Gonzalez↳ R. Ferrufino

72'

C. D. Medina Rodriguez← C. Rodriguez

72'

P. Anez← A. Bejarano

77'

R. E. Rocabado Concha

79'

Marco Salazar

80'

Damian Medina

82'

Fabián Pereira

82'

H. Cuellar↳ E. Gonzalez

85'

M. Alcocer← R. Ferrufino

90+3'

Dario Torrico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlwaysABB

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots15

7Corners2

19Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots15

9On Target6

3Off Target6

2Blocked3

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box12

Passing

53%Possession47%

288Total Passes261

243Accurate Passes215

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls9

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2