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Alverca vs Pêro Pinheiro — Taça de Portugal 2018

Alverca
Alverca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
10/20/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundComplexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alverca76%
×Draw13%
Pêro Pinheiro10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
3.25
Pêro Pinheiro
1.17

Alverca creates 178% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Alverca
3.50
Pêro Pinheiro
1.67

allows per match

Alverca
0.67
Pêro Pinheiro
3.00

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
90%
Alverca or Pêro Pinheiro
87%
Draw or Pêro Pinheiro
24%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
58%
Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
96%
Alverca 2+ goals
83%
Alverca 3+ goals
61%
Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
69%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
33%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
88%
Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 3.50 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.67 + Alverca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Alverca scores more
76%
level
13%
Pêro Pinheiro scores more
10%

Alverca at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Alverca 3–0 Pêro Pinheiro

Alverca beat Pêro Pinheiro 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.