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Alverca vs Pêro Pinheiro — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
8/26/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 4Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alverca67%
×Draw22%
Pêro Pinheiro11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.81
Pêro Pinheiro
0.57

Alverca creates 218% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
Pêro Pinheiro
0.43

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
Pêro Pinheiro
2.14

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
89%
Alverca or Pêro Pinheiro
78%
Draw or Pêro Pinheiro
33%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
40%
Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
84%
Alverca 2+ goals
54%
Alverca 3+ goals
27%
Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
43%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
11%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
86%
Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81

Pêro Pinheiro attack 0.43 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Alverca scores more
67%
level
22%
Pêro Pinheiro scores more
11%

Alverca at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Alverca 3–0 Pêro Pinheiro

Alverca beat Pêro Pinheiro 3-0 in Liga 3 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.