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Alverca vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

Alverca
Alverca
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
Paulinho 50'
André Almeida 35'
André Clóvis 14'
Yuri Araújo 10'
8/30/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 4Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Alverca50%
×Draw25%
Academico Viseu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.60
Academico Viseu
1.04

Alverca creates 54% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 131 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.83
Academico Viseu
1.19

allows per match

Alverca
0.89
Academico Viseu
1.36

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
75%
Alverca or Academico Viseu
75%
Draw or Academico Viseu
50%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
26%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
80%
Alverca 2+ goals
47%
Alverca 3+ goals
22%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
65%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
28%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
67%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.83 + Academico Viseu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Academico Viseu attack 1.19 + Alverca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alverca scores more
50%
level
25%
Academico Viseu scores more
25%

Alverca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Yuri Araújo
14'
André Clóvis
35'
André Almeida
45'
Iago Mendonça
46'
Luiz Miguel← Iago Mendonça
46'
Miguel Pires← Lucas Kawan
50'
Paulinho
58'
Harramiz← Brenner
58'
João Lima← A. Carter
59'
João Pinto← Marquinho
59'
Famana Quizera← G. Ott
65'
Luiz Miguel
71'
Nils Mortimer← Yuri Araújo
71'
C. Kahraman← S. Messeguem
73'
Janickson da Silva← Diogo Martins
74'
Vítor Bruno
76'
D. Nussbaumer← André Clóvis

Shots

0Alverca

Statistics

AlvercaAcademico
Overview
0Total Shots4
0Fouls4
Shots
0Total Shots4
0On Target4
Discipline
0Fouls4

Match Recap: Alverca vs Academico Viseu

Academico Viseu beat Alverca 4-0 in Segunda Liga on August 30, 2024.

Goals: Yuri Araújo (10'), André Clóvis (14'), André Almeida (35'), Paulinho (50').

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.