Alverca 0–3 Academico Viseu: Result & Stats

Alverca

FT

0 – 3

Academico Viseu

9/30/2018

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Futebol Clube Alverca (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alverca58%

×Draw20%

Academico Viseu23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvercaExpected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.39

Alverca

2.30

Academico Viseu

1.39

Alverca creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

3.50

creates per match

2.10

0.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Alverca

3.50

Academico Viseu

2.10

allows per match

Alverca

0.67

Academico Viseu

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Alverca or draw

77%

Alverca or Academico Viseu

80%

Draw or Academico Viseu

42%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+

36%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals

90%

Alverca 2+ goals

67%

Alverca 3+ goals

40%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

75%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

40%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)

72%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 3.50 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.30

Academico Viseu attack 2.10 + Alverca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alverca scores more

58%

level

20%

Academico Viseu scores more

23%

Alverca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff