Alverca 2–1 Academica: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Alverca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Academica

5/12/2024

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 13Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alverca42%

×Draw27%

Academica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvercaExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Alverca

1.35

Academica

1.11

Alverca creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.49

creates per match

1.52

0.71

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Alverca

1.49

Academica

1.52

allows per match

Alverca

0.71

Academica

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alverca or draw

69%

Alverca or Academica

73%

Draw or Academica

58%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+

20%

Academica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals

74%

Alverca 2+ goals

39%

Alverca 3+ goals

15%

Academica 1+ goals

67%

Academica 2+ goals

30%

Academica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)

58%

Academica (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Academica away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Academica attack 1.52 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alverca scores more

42%

level

27%

Academica scores more

31%

Alverca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff