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Academica vs Alverca — Liga 3 2021

Academica
Academica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alverca
Alverca
3/16/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 6Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Academica38%
×Draw27%
Alverca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.29
Alverca
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Alverca
1.38

allows per match

Academica
1.05
Alverca
1.24

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Academica or draw
65%
Academica or Alverca
73%
Draw or Alverca
62%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
17%
Alverca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
72%
Academica 2+ goals
37%
Academica 3+ goals
14%
Alverca 1+ goals
70%
Alverca 2+ goals
34%
Alverca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
53%
Alverca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alverca attack 1.38 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Academica scores more
38%
level
27%
Alverca scores more
35%

Academica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Academica 0–0 Alverca

Academica and Alverca drew 0-0 in Liga 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.