Alvarado 1–0 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Alvarado

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aldosivi

D. Becker 39'

8/11/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 27Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Alvarado40%

×Draw31%

Aldosivi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvaradoExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.89

Alvarado

1.11

Aldosivi

0.89

Alvarado creates 25% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 36 away

1.06

creates per match

0.97

0.81

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Alvarado

1.06

Aldosivi

0.97

allows per match

Alvarado

0.81

Aldosivi

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw

71%

Alvarado or Aldosivi

69%

Draw or Aldosivi

60%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+

17%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals

67%

Alvarado 2+ goals

30%

Alvarado 3+ goals

10%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

59%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

22%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)

58%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 103 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.06 + Aldosivi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Aldosivi attack 0.97 + Alvarado defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alvarado scores more

40%

level

31%

Aldosivi scores more

29%

Alvarado at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

44'

45'

45+1'

47'

56'

L. González← N. Laméndola

56'

S. Luján← G. Piñeiro

62'

L. Monzon

63'

E. Iniguez

69'

S. Jaurena

77'

G. Vadalá← G. Sánchez

81'

E. Torres← A. Alonso

86'

T. Rambert← D. Becker

Alvarado

Aldosivi

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: G. Gómez

77'▲G. Vadalá←▼G. Sánchez

86'▲T. Rambert←▼D. Becker

Alvarado substitutes

VadaláRambertLamardoMansillaBettiniFernándezOchoaFinochiettoMiori

Manager: A. Yllana

56'▲L. González←▼N. Laméndola

56'▲S. Luján←▼G. Piñeiro

81'▲E. Torres←▼A. Alonso

Aldosivi substitutes

GonzálezLujánTorresGuzmánLarraldeGonzálezGonzálezDevesaEsponda