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Aldosivi vs Alvarado — Primera Nacional 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alvarado
Alvarado
3/23/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 8Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aldosivi49%
×Draw29%
Alvarado21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
1.26
Alvarado
0.72

Aldosivi creates 75% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 101 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
1.11
Alvarado
0.75

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.70
Alvarado
1.41

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par
Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Alvarado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
79%
Aldosivi or Alvarado
71%
Draw or Alvarado
51%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
23%
Alvarado wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
72%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
36%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
13%
Alvarado 1+ goals
51%
Alvarado 2+ goals
16%
Alvarado 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
70%
Alvarado (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.11 + Alvarado defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Alvarado attack 0.75 + Aldosivi defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aldosivi scores more
49%
level
29%
Alvarado scores more
21%

Aldosivi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Aldosivi 0–0 Alvarado

Aldosivi and Alvarado drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.