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Alvarado vs Agropecuario — Primera Nacional 2026

Alvarado
Alvarado
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Agropecuario
Agropecuario
7/7/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Alvarado44%
×Draw30%
Agropecuario26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alvarado
1.17
Agropecuario
0.82

Alvarado creates 43% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 126 away

creates per match

Alvarado
1.06
Agropecuario
0.84

allows per match

Alvarado
0.81
Agropecuario
1.27

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par
Agropecuario+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Agropecuario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw
74%
Alvarado or Agropecuario
70%
Draw or Agropecuario
56%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+
19%
Agropecuario wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals
69%
Alvarado 2+ goals
33%
Alvarado 3+ goals
11%
Agropecuario 1+ goals
56%
Agropecuario 2+ goals
20%
Agropecuario 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)
63%
Agropecuario (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 103 matches

Agropecuario away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.06 + Agropecuario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Agropecuario attack 0.84 + Alvarado defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alvarado scores more
44%
level
30%
Agropecuario scores more
26%

Alvarado at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alvarado vs Agropecuario

Agropecuario beat Alvarado 3-0 in Primera Nacional on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.