Agropecuario 1–1 Alvarado: Result & Stats

Agropecuario

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alvarado

2/17/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Ofelia Rosenzuaig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Agropecuario51%

×Draw29%

Alvarado20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AgropecuarioExpected goals in this matchAlvarado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.71

Agropecuario

1.30

Alvarado

0.71

Agropecuario creates 83% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 101 away

1.19

creates per match

0.75

0.67

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Agropecuario

1.19

Alvarado

0.75

allows per match

Agropecuario

0.67

Alvarado

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Agropecuario+0.00on par

Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agropecuario ↓

Alvarado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Agropecuario or draw

80%

Agropecuario or Alvarado

71%

Draw or Alvarado

49%

Winning margin

Agropecuario wins by 2+

24%

Alvarado wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Agropecuario 1+ goals

73%

Agropecuario 2+ goals

37%

Agropecuario 3+ goals

14%

Alvarado 1+ goals

51%

Alvarado 2+ goals

16%

Alvarado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Agropecuario (draw refunded)

71%

Alvarado (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agropecuario at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.67 · 126 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agropecuario attack 1.19 + Alvarado defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alvarado attack 0.75 + Agropecuario defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Agropecuario scores more

51%

level

29%

Alvarado scores more

20%

Agropecuario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Agropecuario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff