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Altyn Asyr vs Alay — AFC Cup 2018

Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alay
Alay
5/2/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Balkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Altyn Asyr71%
×Draw19%
Alay10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altyn Asyr
2.09
Alay
0.65

Altyn Asyr creates 222% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Altyn Asyr
1.47
Alay
0.00

allows per match

Altyn Asyr
1.29
Alay
2.71

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par
Alay+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Alay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw
90%
Altyn Asyr or Alay
81%
Draw or Alay
29%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
46%
Alay wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
88%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
62%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
34%
Alay 1+ goals
48%
Alay 2+ goals
14%
Alay 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
87%
Alay (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Alay away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 1.47 + Alay defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Alay attack 0.00 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more
71%
level
19%
Alay scores more
10%

Altyn Asyr at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altyn Asyr vs Alay

Altyn Asyr beat Alay 5-0 in AFC Cup on May 2, 2018.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat).